- VSR Defence Industrial Outlook · Paper 03
Promised, Not Produced
The distance between the propellant capacity Europe has announced and the capacity it is likely to have - and what it means for the 155 mm reserve
Executive summary
Announced capacity is not delivered capacity. Of 34 dated capacity commitments made since 2022, six were delivered on time. Europe makes about 2 million 155 mm shells a year and has the powder to charge fewer than one million of them.
The gap is widest in the chemical stages. Thirteen commitments are late, seven are stalled, unfunded or announced only. The United States set itself 100,000 rounds a month by October 2025 and was producing about 36,000 in March 2026.
Propellant, and the nitrocellulose behind it, is the ceiling on usable rounds. Europe’s established producers make roughly 20,500 tonnes of energetic nitrocellulose a year, and each artillery round takes 6 to 7 kilograms on the industry’s own planning figure. Europe’s large-calibre powder lines can fully charge about 0.9 million rounds.
New capacity is committed before it runs. Eurenco’s doubled Belgian powder capacity is reserved by its customers until 2032. Capacity that gets financed is financed against offtake - it does not loosen the market for anyone outside the financier’s own order book.
The shortfall is about 14,000 tonnes of propellant a year and, on the delivery record, closes in about 2035 at best, about 2043 on the central case, and not before 2050 at worst. On European powder alone, the 30-million-round reserve is charged in 2044, 2046 or 2051.