- VSR Defence Industrial Outlook · Paper 04
Sovereign Arsenal of the Isles
What it would take for the United Kingdom to make every energetic material, feedstock and large-calibre round its forces need - for itself and its friends, through a long war
Executive summary
Defending the realm now means being able to fight, and keep fighting, a war that reaches these islands and the plants that supply them. The recommended plan costs about £84bn over ten years - three times today’s line - and should be new money.
Build every new plant on the assumption it will be attacked. Russia made about seven million rounds in 2025, seventeen times its 2021 output, and the attack on industry has already begun - hundreds of suspected sabotage cases across Europe, with military sites the most affected. The design consequence is depth of stock, two separate sources for every critical step, protected sites, and the means to rebuild.
Allies have changed how they pay, and the chemistry gets state money first. Germany amended its constitution to put defence above 1% of GDP outside the debt brake; Poland plans 4.8% of GDP; three-quarters of the EU’s ammunition fund went to powder and explosives.
The UK has made the right start - and is about a sixth of the way there. UK 155 mm output is about 50,000 rounds a year against the paper’s better-sized case. The UK has made no ammonia since 2023, no TNT since 2008, and has no identified producer of military nitrocellulose at scale.
The state should own the estate; competing private operators should run it on capped margins with a payback of five years or less. Three-quarters of the £84bn buys stock and plant the country still owns; spent at home it supports 40,000 to 55,000 skilled jobs a year and returns 35-50p in every pound to the Treasury within the decade.